Bitcoin once again stands at 110,000. Bull return?

On July 3rd, Eastern Time, favorable information from the US macro level continued, the "big and beautiful" bill was passed by the House of Representatives; the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% in June; several economic data also performed well, such as the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reporting at 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5, and the previous value of 49.9. The US June ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index reported at 51.3, also higher than the expected 48.2, and the previous value of 46.4. In addition, US industrial orders in May rose by 8.2% month-on-month, the largest increase since 2014; US factory orders excluding defense in May increased by 7.5% month-on-month, significantly higher than the previous value of -4.2%.

Stimulated by the above favorable macroeconomic news, the three major stock indexes opened higher and closed with gains across the board. Bitcoin also rose again to 110,000. The voices of "bull return" and "hitting 200,000 by the end of the year" have resurfaced. Is the great monetary easing really coming? Can crypto assets catch this downpour of wealth?

The US economy is experiencing a strong recovery, and expectations for interest rate cuts have temporarily cooled.

This year, there is a general bet that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in July or September. However, the latest series of economic data indicates that the US economy remains resilient and seems not to have entered the "non-cutting necessity" stage.

In June, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) added 147,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 110,000, indicating that corporate hiring remains active. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, although it is a moderate decrease, it also suggests that the labor market has not yet weakened. Especially the significant rise in industrial goods orders and the new orders index, which shows that the US manufacturing sector is also recovering. At the same time, expectations for fiscal stimulus are also strengthening, as the stablecoin bill and the "Too Big to Fail" tax plan move forward, making it possible for fiscal measures to release liquidity.

Moreover, although the current long-term inflation expectations in the United States remain anchored at 2%, the Federal Reserve believes that there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding policies such as trade, and tariff policies may push up the prices of imported goods, with their "second-round effects" potentially prolonging price pressure and exacerbating short-term inflation.

The Federal Reserve's concerns about short-term inflation, as well as the demonstration of economic resilience, have reduced expectations for a rate cut in July. However, a rate cut in September remains a likely event. Firstly, Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that high interest rates lead to an excessive burden of interest payments on U.S. debt, stating that "for every 1% increase in rates, the federal government pays an additional $200 billion in interest per year," and calling for a reduction in rates to 1%-2% to save on fiscal spending. He also declared that if there was no rate cut before September, it would push Congress to legislate to weaken the Federal Reserve's decision-making power. It is also under Trump's pressure that the market still holds high expectations for a rate cut in September; according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September is only 4.9%.

Although the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June exceeded expectations, government job positions surged unusually in June, accounting for nearly half of the new jobs, which contradicts Trump's "streamline government" policy and raises doubts about the manipulation of data. If the employment data is not actually as strong as it appears, the economic pressures could be greater than they seem on the surface, which would also increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell changed his stance on July 1, stating that "if it weren't for the tariff policy, we should have already cut rates." Additionally, Treasury Secretary Basant also mentioned that "if there is no rate cut in July, the magnitude in September could be larger." All of this has been interpreted by the market as the Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut in September.

The probability of a rate cut in July is small, but a rate cut in September remains a high-probability event. For Bitcoin and the crypto market, there will not be aggressive liquidity release in the short term; however, being in a rate cut cycle, the rhythm of the bull market has not actually been disrupted.

Will Bitcoin hit 200,000 by the end of the year?

In the current bull market rhythm, the Nasdaq has reached a new high. Bitcoin is fluctuating around the 110,000 mark. Will Bitcoin really stand at 200,000 by the end of the year as everyone hopes?

Bitcoin is indeed no longer a game for retail investors; institutions have become the dominant players in this bull market. According to Bitcoin Treasuries statistics, as of July 4, 2025, a total of 255 entities hold Bitcoin, with approximately 3.562 million Bitcoins held, accounting for 16.96% of the total issuance of 21 million.

As of the end of June, 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated holdings of over 1.2 million BTC, accounting for about 6% of the global supply, making Bitcoin increasingly scarce on exchanges. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin reserves on all centralized exchanges have fallen to just 2.44 million at the beginning of July – the lowest level since 2018, indicating that more investors are choosing to hold long-term rather than sell in circulation. The inflow into ETFs, along with institutions viewing Bitcoin as digital gold, also leads to the notion that Bitcoin may replicate the upward trajectory of gold after the introduction of spot ETFs.

From the technical chart perspective, Bitcoin has tested support multiple times in the 105,000 area and received buying support, with both the daily and weekly charts in an upward channel. If it can break through the 118,000–120,000 resistance level, the next target will point to the 135,000–150,000 area.

It can be seen that the channel for Bitcoin's continuous rise has been opened, of course, we must also be vigilant against geopolitical conflicts or macro-level black swans.

As everyone's expectations for the rise of Bitcoin continue to grow, is the "altcoin season" coming?

The author believes that there will be some independent altcoin rallies, but a widespread increase will be difficult to replicate. Currently, the trend of US stocks going on-chain has become popular, with major exchanges racing to launch related RWA products. For instance, XStocks has already been listed on multiple exchanges including Bybit, Bitget, Kraken, Gate, and on the Solana chain's DeFi products.

New gimmicks are constantly emerging to compete for funds and attention with altcoins. Most altcoins, in this bull market, are estimated to have no chance of recovery.

In other words, a mad cow market is difficult to replicate. This round of the bull market resembles a bull driven by the slow release of liquidity and continuous accumulation by institutions. Overall, Bitcoin returning to $110,000 is the result of multiple favourable information overlapping, and the rhythm of this round may be slower and more differentiated. For investors, making money in this cycle requires a strong judgment on macro trends.