Will Musk's "American Party" inevitably fail? Why has no third force succeeded in a hundred years: The graveyard of history and the iron wall of the system.

Today (6th), Musk announced the establishment of the "America Party" to challenge the current two-party dominance system. However, looking back at the development history of the "third force" in the United States, Musk's political gamble is likely to end up as a "spoiler" rather than a winner. (Background: Musk announces the establishment of the "America Party" causing a political storm, with a surge of meme coins.) (Additional Background: Musk announces: Neuralink's human brain implant surgery successful! The first patient is recovering well.) This morning (6th), Musk officially announced the establishment of the "America Party" (America Party) on X, which can be seen as a formal break with President Trump. He wrote on X: According to a previously initiated online vote, about 2 to 1 of users support the establishment of a new political party. When it comes to waste and corruption bankrupting our country, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it! When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 5, 2025 Stepping into the historical graveyard of the third force However, despite Musk's immense wealth and media aura, vowing to break the two-party monopoly, turning the pages of American political history, this path resembles a "graveyard of third forces" that has buried countless challengers. This political gamble is likely to turn into a "spoiler" rather than a winner. Historical Lesson 1: Strongmen Cannot Overcome the System — Roosevelt's Progressive Party (1912) The most representative failed case is former U.S. President Roosevelt. In 1912, he broke away from the Republican Party, led the "Progressive Party" to run for election, and garnered an astonishing 27% of the popular vote, even surpassing the Republican candidate. However, under the winner-takes-all electoral college system, high popular votes could not translate into victory. He ultimately suffered a disastrous defeat, and the only practical effect of his candidacy was to split the Republican vote, allowing the Democratic candidate Wilson to ascend to the presidency. Historical Lesson 2: Billionaires Cannot Buy Victory — Ross Perot (1992) Like Musk, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate in 1992, focusing on the national debt and government efficiency issues. He spent huge amounts on advertising and once led in polls, ultimately securing nearly 19% of the popular vote. However, he did not win any electoral votes. Perot's candidacy is widely regarded as having dispersed conservative votes, indirectly leading to the defeat of George H.W. Bush. This proves that even with substantial financial resources, one cannot shake the deeply entrenched two-party structure. Historical Lesson 3: The Destructive Power of the Minority — Ralph Nader (2000) Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is the perfect embodiment of the "spoiler" role. In the 2000 election, he received less than 3% of the votes, but in the fiercely contested Florida, his more than ninety thousand votes far exceeded the gap of just over five hundred votes between Bush and Gore. Many analyses suggest that if Nader had not run, most of those votes would likely have gone to Gore, potentially rewriting history. Nader's case shows that the most realistic role of a third party is often not to win the election, but to become the crucial minority deciding which major party loses. The Institutional Iron Wall Crushing the Third Force The reason history keeps repeating itself is partly due to the design of the American political system, which inherently excludes third forces: The winner-takes-all electoral college: This is the most lethal obstacle. A candidate can have national support but cannot win any state’s highest votes; their electoral votes become zero. This leads voters to prefer "strategic voting," unwilling to waste their votes on candidates without a chance of winning. Hellish ballot access: Getting a name on the national ballot is a legal and administrative battle costing hundreds of millions and taking years. Each state has different thresholds, from requiring tens of thousands of party member registrations to submitting millions of signatures. The Democratic and Republican parties also use legal resources to challenge the validity, dragging down challengers. The huge gap in funding and resources: Although Musk is not short of money, running a party involves more than just advertising costs. Establishing a nationwide grassroots network, mobilizing volunteers, and responding to endless legal challenges is far more complex than a super PAC. Can Musk be a disruptor? Perhaps he doesn't care at all Musk's "America Party," while riding the wave of public dissatisfaction with the status quo, will ultimately crash into the solid dam known as "political reality." From Roosevelt to Perot, history has repeatedly proven that under the U.S. institutional framework, any third-party movement, no matter how charismatic or wealthy its initiators are, ultimately struggles to escape the fate of marginalization or becoming a "spoiler." On the other hand, Musk is not a politician by trade; as a business operator, he may simply be seeking leverage in negotiations with Trump. After all, if he really establishes a third party, the damage to the Republican Party will undoubtedly be much greater, and conversely, the Democratic Party may even benefit. Currently, the specific policy positions and organizational structure of the "America Party" have not been announced, nor has it completed registration with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). There are still significant variables in the future, so let’s continue to watch. Related reports Musk's Neuralink receives $43 million in funding led by Silicon Valley venture capital godfather Peter Thiel Musk's "brain implant chip" experiment requires skull cutting! Thousands still sign up Neuralink brain-machine implantation Musk's Neuralink "brain chip implant" approved for human trials. Is brain-machine interface becoming a reality? <"Is Musk's America Party Doomed to Fail? Why No Third Force Has Succeeded in a Century: Graveyards of History and Institutional Iron Walls"> This article was originally published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.