Fluctuation and Returns in the Encryption Investment Field

The grand occasion of the Token2049 conference in Singapore reflects the vibrant vitality of the encryption industry. Over 20,000 enthusiastic participants gathered together, with the venue bustling and the parties unprecedentedly lively. This enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to the dullness of traditional finance conferences, highlighting the unique charm of the encryption field.

Looking back at the macro predictions of the past year, my accuracy on major judgments was about 25%. Although the accuracy of predictions is not high, overall investments still achieved profits. This is because, while specific events are difficult to predict, the general direction of monetary policy can be grasped - when market fluctuations intensify, central banks will inevitably adopt easing policies.

For a long time, global elites have attempted to suppress market fluctuations by printing money. However, the amount of currency required to maintain the illusion of calm is increasing day by day. The relationship graph between bond market volatility and money supply clearly illustrates this. Each time a crisis erupts, more liquidity needs to be injected to smooth out the fluctuations.

In this context, Bitcoin and encryption have become the release valve for the proliferation of fiat currency. The fiat currency printed to curb Fluctuation will ultimately flow into the encryption market. As long as the technological foundation of Bitcoin remains solid, it will continue to benefit from the attempts of elites to violate economic laws.

For investors, the key is to acquire Bitcoin at the lowest cost. This can be achieved in various ways, such as pricing labor in Bitcoin, mining, or purchasing with low-interest loans. The fluctuation between Bitcoin and fiat currency is an asset and should not be wasted through excessive leverage.

Short-term speculation does carry risks, but as long as leverage is not abused, the real risk lies in the reset of the entire financial system. At that time, the decline of Bitcoin relative to physical assets like energy may be smaller, and it will still outperform the market.

In the near future, major economies may continue to implement loose policies. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates until they approach zero, and the EU and China will also take similar measures. In this environment, the cryptocurrency market is expected to continue benefiting from excessive liquidity. For those who are already fully invested in cryptocurrencies, they can watch the changes; for those holding fiat currency, it may be worth considering increasing their cryptocurrency allocation.