The Cup and Handle Pattern of Ethereum's Crazy Pumping and the Concerns of the M-Head Strategy

Core logic and risk warning after the surge

• "The Callback Foreshadowing After the 'Madness': The second pancake ignores the overbought condition and divergence, the crazy situation of 'I just rise' is just like 'Heaven wants you to perish, it must first make you mad'—although the bullish momentum is sufficient currently (the cup and handle pattern has not been broken), the risks after excessive pumping have accumulated, and one must be vigilant about the reversal at the 'mad edge';

• Bull-bear competition of the pattern: Hourly circular arc bottom + cup handle pattern supports the rise, if the cup handle does not break, the bulls are strong; however, there is a hidden worry of the M head - it needs to first break the yellow trend line, and then break the 3700 USD neck level for the pattern to be established. Currently, it is still in the "upward momentum", and attention should be paid to the opening trends of the U.S. stock market.

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long Conditions:

1. Volume breaks above $3808 → chase long on the right side (aggressive participants), target $3812 → $3852, stop loss on break.

2. Stabilize at $3812 → Increase long positions, targeting $3880 ("If it stabilizes, the target will surely be reached"), and volume is the key to continuation.

• Shorting conditions:

1. If the volume drops below $3754 → short on the right side, target $3700 → $3630, recover the stop loss;

2. Break below the yellow trend line + 3700 US dollar neckline → M top established, add to short position, looking down to 3630 US dollars, clear pullback signal.

Form and Operational Discipline

• Protection of cup handle pattern:

◦ The lower edge of the cup handle is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it breaks, it will be "losing the fish for the soup," and long positions should take profits or reduce positions to avoid giving back profits.

• The value of manual strategies:

◦ Completely manual strategy writing, just to "make it easy for classmates to understand" — trading isn't difficult, understanding patterns (like cup and handle, M tops), catching false breakouts, and executing discipline properly is enough. "Good food isn’t afraid of being late," being patient and waiting for signals is more important.

Summary: Stay clear-headed amid the crazy pump of Ethereum. The core operation: go long based on the cup and handle pattern, switch to short if it breaks, be wary of pullbacks after the formation of the M head. The movement of the US stock market opening may become a key catalyst. Don't chase the frenzy, don't get attached to battles, and maintain discipline to protect the principal.