Funding heat cools down, the market may enter a high-level consolidation stage

Recently, the market has shown some signs of growth, but the slowdown in capital inflows may mask potential structural risks, and the market may enter a phase of high-level fluctuations.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

Trump's attitude towards trade issues has softened, coupled with cooling inflation data, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the momentum of funds has clearly weakened, with continuous declines in the inflow of stablecoins and ETFs, indicating insufficient new buying. Although Bitcoin prices have risen, indicators such as fund inflows and OTC premiums are cooling down simultaneously, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Currently, it is recommended to focus on defense, paying attention to the support around $100,000 for Bitcoin and the pullback rhythm of Ethereum. Consider appropriately reducing holdings in high Beta altcoins.

In terms of macroeconomics, trade fluctuations and CPI data have triggered short-term market volatility. The surge in corporate bonds supports the stock market but exacerbates the U.S. debt crisis. High leverage among consumers and businesses, combined with the constraints of Federal Reserve policies, has begun to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow Analysis

ETF funds flowed into $609 million this week, but the inflow amount continues to decline. Stablecoins were issued at $877 million this week, with an average daily issuance of $112 million, which is at a low level. The premium of over-the-counter stablecoins continues to decline underwater.

Bitcoin's technical aspect is in a fluctuating upward range, with increased positions above $100,000. Ethereum's performance is weaker than Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio breaking down, and funds continuously flowing back to Bitcoin. The increase in active addresses on the Ethereum chain may indicate that a phase of bottoming out has been completed.

The Impact of ADP Employment Data on Bitcoin Prices

Statistics show that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the probability of Bitcoin rising within 7 days is about 94%, with an average increase of 6.8%. This may be because strong employment data is seen as a signal of economic recovery, reducing market concerns about a recession.

However, even though the ADP data significantly exceeded expectations, the increase in Bitcoin remains relatively limited. Regression analysis shows that for every 1% exceedance of expectations, Bitcoin rises by an average of about 0.06%. This means that Bitcoin's price elasticity to a single macroeconomic indicator is relatively limited.

In fact, the surge in Bitcoin prices can be attributed to the resonance of macroeconomic backgrounds or events within the cryptocurrency market itself. ADP data can be seen as a supplementary sentiment indicator, but its individual impact is not sufficient to determine the direction of Bitcoin. The actual trend needs to be assessed in conjunction with macro policy signals and event-driven factors in the cryptocurrency sector.

On-chain Data Analysis

The total amount of stablecoins has slightly increased to $211.256 billion, but the issuance has only been $877 million, significantly lower than before. The average daily issuance has dropped to $125 million, reaching a new low in nearly four weeks, indicating a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow. This may reflect that the market has entered a wait-and-see stage, with a weakening of marginal liquidity in the short term, necessitating caution against potential consolidation pressure.

The inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has slowed for three consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of only $609 million this week, significantly reducing the marginal influence of funds. Although the price is still within an upward channel, there is a divergence with the underlying capital, indicating a risk of weak upward momentum and adjustment.

The off-exchange premium continues to decline below water, showing divergence from prices, indicating that the inflow of off-exchange funds is weakening and the market's new momentum is sluggish. This trend aligns with the slowdown in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant decline in ETF fund inflows, signaling that the market is in a stage of stock game.

On-chain data shows that the chip ratio of Bitcoin in the range of $101,800 to $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, indicating a large amount of turnover at this price level, and market consensus is gradually forming. This range may have strong support, but it may also become a short-term resistance zone.

The changes in address structure indicate a clear game of funds: large addresses are reducing their holdings at high levels, medium addresses are actively trading, and small addresses continue to accumulate. Overall, the attitude of large funds is becoming cautious, while the composition of small and medium funds serves as important support for the current price range.

Market Outlook

The current market is in a wait-and-see and game-playing stage. In the short term, without significant positive news, it may maintain fluctuations or face further adjustment risks. Investors should closely monitor changes in capital flows, on-chain data, and other indicators, as well as the impact of macroeconomic policies and major industry events.