The financial markets are closely following the upcoming Fed meeting in September. According to data analysis from CME, the market expects a 93.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate is only 6.4%. Currently, investors and analysts are mainly discussing whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. It is worth noting that institutions like Goldman Sachs have begun to hint at a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut.

This year's Fed policy direction is quite similar to last year's. In July, there was an opportunity to cut interest rates, but the decision was ultimately made to stay put. However, the subsequent economic data fell short of expectations, making a rate cut in September almost inevitable. Some market observers believe that the lack of a rate cut in July may have been to give the financial markets enough time to adjust.

Fed Chairman Powell faces a complex decision-making environment. On one hand, the U.S. economic growth has slowed, but the impact of tariffs on prices has not yet fully manifested. Powell previously stated that he would comprehensively assess economic data before making a decision ahead of the September interest rate meeting. On the other hand, the independence of Fed's policy is under challenge, and as Powell's term is nearing its end, his interest rate cut decisions need to be more cautious to balance market expectations and policy independence.

For cryptocurrency investors, the Fed's monetary policy direction will directly affect the global liquidity environment, thereby influencing the trends in the digital asset market. Lowering interest rates may stimulate demand for risk assets, but investors still need to closely follow changes in the global economic situation and regulatory environment.