Preface

Ethereum (ETH) continues to trade just below its all-time high of $4.9K, with its price action still following an ascending channel pattern. The market is lingering within a critical support zone, where bulls and bears are locked in a fierce contest. The direction of the next breakout in the near term will likely dictate the next phase of market movement.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows ETH has repeatedly failed to break above the $4.9K resistance area and is currently confined between $4.9K and $4.3K, forming a converging triangle pattern. If the price falls below support, the next key level will be the psychological $4K mark, a zone with significant liquidity and previously strong buy-side defense. Holding the $4K level could pave the way for another run at the all-time high. Conversely, if support is lost, ETH might pull back to the $3.6K - $3.8K range.

On-Chain Activity

Recent exchange data reveal several consecutive days with net outflows of over 100,000 ETH per day, totaling 628,000 ETH. This signals a continued decrease in selling pressure. At the same time, wallet balances among large holders (10,000–100,000 ETH) have hit record highs, further validating that institutional demand is steadily absorbing circulating supply. This supply-demand imbalance suggests ETH could see strong upward momentum once the consolidation phase ends.

Ethereum: Wall Street’s Digital Asset

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently commented that Ethereum is rapidly becoming “Wall Street’s token.” With the rise of stablecoin applications, every bank and financial institution now requires infrastructure to support such transactions, and Ethereum’s EVM-compatible networks are uniquely positioned to provide this capability.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law in the United States in July, created the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. It requires transparency, full reserves, and secure integration with the financial system. In response, Binance stablecoin reserves surged by $4 billion in a short period, with institutional participation growing as well. Legacy financial giants—Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard—are accelerating their deployment of stablecoin payment infrastructure, further establishing Ethereum’s central role.

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Conclusion

ETH remains capped by the $4.9K resistance. However, with significant outflows from exchanges, rising large-holder accumulation, and favorable regulatory developments for stablecoins, market structure is increasingly tilting bullish. A breakout from the current consolidation could see ETH target $5K and potentially higher levels.