1. What is alt season?

“Alt Season” refers to a period during which the majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price increase, usually over a cycle of 90 days. If mainstream measuring tools like the Altcoin Season Index exceed 75, it is considered that we have entered Alt Season. .

2. The latest trends of Bitcoin and altcoins

Image:https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

• BTC: After a recent surge hitting a historical high, it has pulled back and is currently fluctuating in the range of $117,000 to $122,000.

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT

• ETH: Over the past week, it has risen more than 17%, driving the ETH/BTC ratio to recover by over 8%. At the same time, some analyses suggest that ETH is supported by institutional buying accumulation.

3. Altcoin Season Index & TOTAL2 Indicator

• Altcoin Season Index: It has risen from a low of 15 at the end of June to around 32, with some platforms reaching the critical value of 75 on July 8.
• TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap Excluding BTC): Gradually increased from $1.05 trillion to $1.21 trillion, having broken through the descending wedge area, indicating a return of institutional and retail funds.

4. Macroeconomic Environment and Market Liquidity

• BTC ETF continues to attract capital, boosting overall market sentiment.
• Stablecoin reserves hit a record high, exceeding $31 billion, forming ample “dry powder.”
• The cyclical return pattern after the 2025 Bitcoin halving is gradually releasing its spiral upward potential.

5. Analysts and Community Latest Opinions

• Many research institutions believe that “July 2025 may mark the start of alt season,” especially after technological breakthroughs in major coins like ETH and SOL.
• Compared to the championship cycle on Reddit, the 2025 alt season seems more institutionalized and does not rely entirely on retail sentiment. The community’s viewpoints are represented as follows:
  “This cycle is slower, but macro conditions (like global rate hikes and ETF delays) matter.” “I think it’s even worse LOL” — A small part believes that a “lost season” may reoccur.

On the technical side, if BTC.D (Bitcoin market cap dominance) falls below 65% or even 60%, it will create space for altcoins.

6. Does it mean the alt season is over?

Comprehensive current signals:

• Altcoin Season Index has significantly rebounded and may briefly break through;
• TOTAL2 synchronously releases benefits with BTC.D;
• ETH/BTC and mainstream altcoins (XRP, ADA, SOL) have all shown technical breakthroughs;
• But BTC.D is still above 60%, and mainstream indices have not yet fully confirmed.

The conclusion is: we are currently not at the end of the alt season, but rather at the beginning stage, in a phase of accumulation, and have not yet entered a widespread outbreak period; we need to wait for key confirmation signals.